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A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.

That is the message from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The team have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.

Absence of Serious Debate

Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.

"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with the basics. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two essays that aim for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Discussions range over identity markers, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and provoke dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.

Probability of Public Vote

McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has has something to acquire from the other's positions."

Request for Wider Dialogue

Westminster should participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."