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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction

The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: hopeful statements are delivered from different nations. Considerable effort is allocated on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "peace".

After-Dark Attacks

As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capability afforded by current data. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to engage hostile cruise missiles roared overhead – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by Western partners.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: several firings deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably supplied through allied countries. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and further power outages.

Ongoing Risks

Soon after, a automatic firearm fired at a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its destination.

Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: several casualties, devastation and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a dependence that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to replace in the short term.

Failed Diplomacy

The detailed framework from Washington sparked intense emotion, controversy and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.

Every new initiative from Washington adheres to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, certainly, continue.

Political Considerations

It is convenient to criticize specific actors of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration works based on a assumption familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House believes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the situation will not change more in its advantage in the coming year.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing lives and land but averting a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its favour.

Current Realities

Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: political desires to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.

These two forces are driving the talks.

Summary and Prospects

It took a only one week to terminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.

While new plans based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, mainly require continued Western support.